With less than 24 hours to go, Political Season updates our Feb. 15th Texas & Ohio prediction as follows:
Texas & Ohio - Political Season predicts Obama loses the popular vote in both contests. He has closed the gap in Texas, but I don't think he gets all the way there, and Clinton is showing a 2 day upwards trend that should it hold through tomorrow nights voting, may permit her to edge Obama out . Best case scenario, he splits them with her. Again, the demographics seem favor her in Ohio and the hispanic vote may be breaking large for her in Texas, though it remains to be seen if the so-called "brown wave" of latino voters in Texas will materialize for Clinton. Count on these wins to reinvigorate her call for seating Michigan and Florida (and open warfare on this score from Obamacons). These wins, coupled with Rhode Island will give her 3 to 1 victories on this round of primaries, and keep her alive for the PA primary.
Furthermore, Political Season says this does not get better. Frontrunner status means that Obama is under more scrutiny from the press and the Obama campaign may increasingly be off message as the heat turns up. We predict that the comments to the Canadian government issue, the soon starting Rezko trial, incoming fire from Clinton, McCain and President Bush, and what appear to be buyer's remorse among the democratic electorate on Obama will all combine to blunt his campaign's forward motion, leaving him appearing as though he cannot quite close the deal and administer the kill shot to the Clinton campaign. In this environment, the close in tactical infighting skills of the Clinton's will be brought to bear on delegate schemes and to capitalize on the greater criticism that is now coming Obama's way. With the defeats in Texas and Ohio, even if he manages to split them with Clinton, we are witnessing the beginning of the end of the Obama run.
Aaron & Alaine, this was right one point..."In this environment, the close in tactical infighting skills of the Clinton's will be brought to bear on delegate schemes and to capitalize on the greater criticism that is now coming Obama's way..." The Canadian issue was the opening salvo of this tactic. I saw his response to this hit and it was feeble, a lot of stammering in his response. And, yet its going to get worse. On another note, this morning the CBS news overnight program presented a 2 minute news blurb about the accomplishments of Sen. Clinton. This opened another front he's going to have to battle with. Since the media has been very gentle with him.
ReplyDeleteHe's done well so far, but his frontrunner status now means he is going to be subjected to withering fire. She has succeeded in making this about HIM. She is off the defense and back on offense after 11 straight beatdowns and he has to parry her thrust correctly.
ReplyDeleteI think he needs to take a page out of the McCain book on the Rezko thing. Saturate the press with his presence and answer all their questions. If there is no there there, he has little to lose. But the more he plays cute and hide the ball with it, the more it will play against him in the press. The Canada thing will blow over, but she can tar him with Rezko forever if he doesn't squash it now by simply shining light on it until its sanitized.
Her attack on him on the commander in chief question he also needs to develop a better answer for. They are starting to get the range on him. He's got to float like a butterfly, rope a dope a hot minute and then sting like a bee if he wants to avoid his campaign collapsing.