From the Debka File -The US embassy in Tbilisi said Tuesday, Aug. 26, that two warships will deliver aid to Georgia Wednesday through the Black Sea port of Poti, the day after Russian forces announced they would search all incoming cargoes.
Meanwhile, Medvedev has signed decrees recognizing South Ossetian and Abkhazian independence. Russia is making it clear that they intend to press independence for these regions as it was pressed for Kosovo by the West and that will clearly include extending military support to maintaining their borders. US warships are set to enter the Poti port, which is under the control of the Russian navy. Will the Russians make good on their promise to search all vessels entering the port? If they attempt to do so with US vessels, rest assured that US warships will certainly not permit it. This is a test to see who is going to blink first. The potential result: a military conflict with Russia.
Exit question: In light of US committments to Iraq and Afghanistan, is it a smart move for the US to dare the Russians to call our bluff? If they do, then what?
Wow, I just got the news on your post that Putvedev had actually signed the declaration. Combine that with the coming search of US vessels and we've got ourselves a powder keg. I don't think the US can afford to do anything directly, yet the Russians don't seem fazed at all by the WTO threats and the rest. I must say I'm at a loss at to what'll come next...
ReplyDeleteThe Russians are not fazed because they are making their move at a time when the US is strategically unable to effectively counter. There are things we can do but not a lot that would be very effective or painful, whereas Russia's counters to our moves can be very painful in Iran. We are challenging what they consider to be core national security interests. They know that once we redeploy out of Iraq, we will have more freedom of action than we do now. That means a window of 18-36 months to change facts on the ground and assert themselves in ways that advance their interests and which are hard to prevent or undo. After that, we'll have more military bandwidth. So, they are making their moves now.
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