"The short term impact of the third debate will be to help Barack Obama. But the long term implications may give John McCain a needed boost. Obama looked good, but McCain opened the tax-and-spend issue in a way that might prevail."
The McCain campaign is not out of this race by a long shot. Obama's thin resume, the question of his associations, his liberal politics and race are all factors in depressing his attraction to the electorate. If Obama's pedigree were absent characters like Ayers, and his politics were not so liberal, this race truly would be over right now. But these elements of Obama have conspired to keep McCain within striking distance.
It's interesting to me that McCain has tried a variety of messages. Reformer, populist, biography is qualification, etc. But none of that has been successful in putting Obama away and amazingly enough, this race has now pivoted, or perhaps even defaulted to the most traditional of republican messages, that Obama the democrat is a big tax and spend liberal.
This argument has the value of having truth to it. When Obama chatted with the now famous Joe the Plumber and said he wanted to spread the wealth, he was answering the man from his first political instincts and in doing so, handed McCain a renewed opportunity to make the case that Obama will tax away our money and in so doing impoverish America. Obama's inconvenient truth telling to Joe may have inadvertently handed McCain the sharpener that he needed to focus his economic message to greatest effect and close the gap to victory in this remaining 18 days.
Anything is possible. We watched Obama lose the New Hampshire primary despite polls and public acclaim in advance of the voting. It can happen again.
ReplyDeleteHowever, at the end of the day, Americans are going to look at their personal economic situation under the leadership of George Bush ... and realize that they cannot afford another four years of the same economic policies in a McCain administration.
That is why Obama will win.
although, not over "by a long shot," i can imagine that Obama's fat lady is warming up her vocal chords while McCain's fat lady needs to put on another 20 lbs!
ReplyDeletethe fact of the matter, neither candidate is going to win on a single issue. and branding Obama a "tax & spend liberal" has already been used... remember the line: Obama is the most liberal member of the Senate?
solutions for a bad economy, a forward-leaning vision, sound judgement, and a steady hand at the wheel - four things that McCain lacks - are what are driving this election cycle. i will bet that McCain (and Company) will have something new to spring on the American people come next monday or tuesday!
Hey guys.
ReplyDeleteIf Joe the Plumber had happened far earlier in the campaign before this thing started going down in flames, then I might be inclined to agree that it could have potentially narrowed the gap somewhat. But it's far too late now.
And aside from the seemingly unstoppable momentum at thi9s point, I'm sure by now you've heard about all of poor Joe's problems. He's not a licensed plumber. Owes back taxes that he hasn't paid. And apparently his name may not even be Joe...
Every life raft that McCain reaches for has holes, and he's drifting further and further out to sea.
There are only 18 days to go and I think the margins are close enough that McCain has a chance. Obama handed him an opportunity with the stupid spread the wealth comment to plumber boy. He might do something else stupid like that.
ReplyDeleteThrow in race and the unknowns about how that will affect the electorate's decision making and I have to tell you, irrespective of the polls, I don't know whats going to happen on Nov. 4th.
Obama over polled by 7% in the primaries, and that was among Democrats. Add in that the polls are universally over weighting Democrats to Republicans (except Rasmussen, which puts them at a statistical dead heat) and I would venture that McCain is up by at least 7. When I feed that into the electoral map, McCain only needs to flip VA and he's golden.
ReplyDelete