January 6, 2008

Political Season's New Hampshire Primary Prediction

All right. After some deliberation and thought, here are Political Seasons' prediction for the New Hampshire primary.


Political Season has decided to drink the Obama kool-aid for the NH primary. Based on the poll data at Realclearpolitics.org, and Obama's gaffe free debate performance last night, we predict he will win the NH primary and that he will do so running away. Political Season projects Obama to be the winner with a margin of victory as big or bigger than Iowa. We predict Hillary will take second place and Edwards will come in third with a vote performance weaker than in Iowa.


Political Season is predicting that John McCain will be the winner of the New Hampshire primary and may win it walking away in terms of the margin of victory. Romney appears to be fading and trending downwards in the polls. Although post debate focus groups in New Hampshire seemed to respond well to his performance, we do not think it will be enough to turn the tide for him in the time remaining against McCain. Huckabee will make a third place showing. While he appears to be achieving some upward movement, we believe his identification as an evangelical in the minds of NH voters will cap the extent of upward movement and that he will not benefit from an Iowa bump anywhere near what his democratic counterpart, Obama, has experienced from his Iowa win.