Showing posts with label Iowa. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Iowa. Show all posts

January 3, 2012

Rick Santorum Surges in Iowa with Stereotypes of Lazy Blacks Taking Welfare Out of White People's Pockets

How you think the brother "working" the camera behind him liked that?


Rick Santorum has been riding a real surge in Iowa over the last few days, moving into striking distance of being in the top three finishers out there in the caucuses.  He's been putting in work the old fashioned way, visiting every single county in the state, doing small group meetings one after the other and talking to the voters.

Campaigning isn't the only thing Santorum is apparently doing the old fashioned way. Using stereotypes of blacks as a convenient shorthand to illustrate the ills of America as white voters see it is another way that Rick is demonstrating his old school campaign chops. At a campaign stop in Sioux City Iowa, a voter asks Santorum: "how do we get off this crazy train? We've got so much foreign influence in this country now," adding "where do we go from here?"

Santorum's answer perhaps started with foreign influence but rambled over to the subject of government creating dependency and he apparently reached into his campaign communication bag of tricks for the most easily relatable and easy to understand illustration of that issue he could think of on the fly: black people:



Notice how he basically defaulted to this stereotyped racially based meme in trying to communicate with a room full of white folks?  Check the pause as he was trying to find an illustration of his point about dependency.  He needed that illustration right then, something that would resonate with a room full of white people and where did his brain go in that moment? Black people.

With his numbers surging in Iowa, Santorum is perhaps poised to be the next of the Not Romney's to rise in the polls and get a more serious look.  I was certainly willing to pay him some more attention, as I've got real respect for a guy who hits the ground and pounds the pavement like he's been doing in Iowa.  But unless Santorum gives a far more insightful, honest answer to the question of why he defaulted to "blacks" as the best illustration for his point regarding dependency on government, he's effectively blown any serious future look from me irregardless of what he says.  When asked directly about why he talked about blacks, he ducked and dodged.




I'm sorry, but his response is not gonna cut it with me.  We'll see if any other media ask him to speak to the issue.  I think it would be an interesting exercise to ask the other candidates to assess those remarks as well.  No one is gonna do it, but I'm already certain that one or more of them would likely double down on it if they were asked.

Here's what he said:

"It just keeps expanding - I was in Indianola a few months ago and I was talking to someone who works in the department of public welfare here, and she told me that the state of Iowa is going to get fined if they don't sign up more people under the Medicaid program. They're just pushing harder and harder to get more and more of you dependent upon them so they can get your vote. That's what the bottom line is. I don't want to make black people's lives better by giving them somebody else's money; I want to give them the opportunity to go out and earn the money and provide for themselves and their families. The best way to do that is to get the manufacturing sector of the economy rolling again." 

There is a lot to object to in Santorum's statement;

Context: he's in Iowa, in a room full of white people, in a state in which about 3% of the population is black, using "blacks" to illustrate the problem of government dependency.
 

Implicit assumptions: To illustrate his point about government dependency, he plays to a stereotype that the majority of blacks are dependent on government welfare.  He just says "blacks".  He doesn't qualify it or limit it in anyway, presumably because he doesn't have to.  Everyone in the room will immediately understand and agree with his implicit assumption that most blacks are on welfare.

This is a guy who's response to Howard Dean saying diversity was a strength of America was that talking about our diversity is divisive.  Yet, here, he plays to racial resentment by implicitly suggesting that "blacks" are being given white people's money, money which the government took from hard working white people to give to lazy blacks. He wants to give us "blacks" the opportunity to go out and earn the money and provide for ourselves, I guess because all us shiftless lazy Negroes don't work to take care of ourselves. Those are the implicit assumptions behind his statement.  Its offensive.  Its untrue.  We've been called lazy for hundreds of years.   When we were forced to work for free as slaves in the fields on pain of death, they called us lazy. It was not true then.  Its not true now.

His statements and the assumptions behind them are pretty offensive.  "Blacks" are on welfare.  All of us.  Now of course, the out he and others will use to justify labeling blacks as welfare parasites, if he's even asked, is to say "what I was really referring to is that a larger percentage of blacks are on welfare relative to their share of the population compared to whites".  Right?   Wrong. What is welfare?  I say welfare is any government financial assistance that is received but not earned, that taxes one group to support another group, meaning it's pay-as-you-go and not a contributory scheme where people's own savings pay their  benefits and lastly Congress can alter benefits to reflect changing needs, economic conditions and politics.  That being the case, welfare comes in many forms besides public assistance that goes to poor black people, like for example the subsidies we pay farmers NOT to farm or even better, Social Security, which is definitely welfare.  Those programs are breaking the bank and even more interesting, the majority of those benefits go to people who are not the same color as me. But Santorum doesn't have a problem with welfare payments where the benefits go primarily to white people. If welfare and government dependence are really the big issues, lets talk about all of it; why do you get in a room with other white people, start talking about welfare and single out black recipients? How do you justify such divisive talk on the campaign trail, even as you claim to be all about our equality and our common citizenship? Its racebaiting, and what makes it really insidious and repugnant in this instance is the routine nature of it.  That particular meme of black dependency on government is a standard staple of political discourse on the right, certainly within its more conservative wings, even though its not supported by the facts. Its a racial lie that has been perpetuated in just the way Santorum spreads it here.

Nobody in that room of good Iowa voters in there challenged that.  Indeed, Santorum got applause for those remarks, so clearly there were a significant number of the voters in that room who completely agreed with those comments.  Rick Santorum is a darling of the Tea Party, regarded as a consistent conservative after their own hearts.  He's the darling of aTea Party that vehemently denies any allegation that it is racially biased in any way whatsoever. Well,  here is an opportunity for the Tea Party to actually demonstrate its regard for African Americans as equal citizens worthy of the basic consideration of not being blanketly described as lazy, welfare parasites leeching the money of hard working white folks.  Repudiate these statements of Santorum's.  Publicly state that they are wrong and divisive. Demand that he apologize for them.  I'm not gonna hold my breath.  And if you're a Tea Party member and think these statements are okay, then I'm gonna tell you that you and the Tea Party do have racial bias when it comes to race if you buy into the stereotypes and assumptions implicit in Santorum's statements.

I'm betting that no one in the Tea Party movement will decry these statements or even criticize them in any but the most namby pamby of ways.  I'm betting none of his fellow candidates will say squat about these comments or take the opportunity to hammer him with them in political attack ads (though well they should).  On the contrary, to the extent anyone else in the party speaks to the comments, I'm betting they will either soft pedal their critique or more likely and worse, they will try to explain, using statistics, how blacks are heavily dependent on government welfare and that Santorum's comments are really accurate. But the facts are quite the opposite.  Whites receive far more welfare benefits than blacks.  Saying anything else is simply a divisive racially biased lie.  Unless of course you're Rick Santorum on the campaign trail in Iowa looking to get nice white conservative voters on your team. 

January 8, 2008

The Oprah Effect Revisited

In light of Obama's victory in Iowa and his strong showing in New Hampshire, its worth quickly revisiting Oprah's involvement for a moment. The MSM is so simple that they often miss the boat on whats really going on. In the case of Oprah's endorsement, people, including Dr. Laura, are also missing the boat.

The Obama campaign was very smart in obtaining Oprah's support and they were genius in how they used her. They went on a three state tour, before the IA caucus and NH and SC primaries and used her celebrity to the get the names, phone numbers and email of 60,000 potential voters. You had to give up your info for tickets, you got better seats if you volunteered, it was genius. They have been working those 60,000 voters ever since, and turned them into victory in IA, a very strong performance in NH and potentially a victory in South Carolina. Oprah was the sizzle and they provided the steak. She made the pitch and they moved in to close the sale. Very smart. It was not about a celebrity endorsement, it was about getting a shot at 60,000 voters and they totally succeeded.

That success is an intriguing predicate to a discussion about what else is possible in impacting public policy if the black elite and the political class joined forces to press for change on other public policy issues facing black America.

January 4, 2008

The Audacity of Hope Indeed

Barack has won Iowa and he poses a challenge to black americans as surely as he does to Hillary Clinton. His win last night challenges us to embrace a potential reality that while intellectually plausible, has I suspect for most of us, been purposely kept at an emotional distance. The potential reality that we might perhaps see the first African American president of the United States in... our.... lifetime.

Do we dare imagine it? Hope for it? Wish it? Obama is daring us to do so. His commanding defeat of his rivals in a state that is 94% white and largely rural is like Obama screaming at us "Come on! I can do this!".

Eminently qualified, credible and bonus, he's black. A black president in our lifetime. I've always believed that one day there would be a black president. But if you had asked me if it would occur in my lifetime, I think my answer would have been no. I would have been more likely to say that it would be in my children's lifetime. In fact, I would often say to and about my middle son, Noah (age5, feature video of the day), that he would be the first black president. After Obama's win in Iowa, a small, quiet voice in my spirit is whispering "maybe, just maybe". First Lady Michelle Obama. What about that? An accomplished, classy, intelligent and attractive black woman as First Lady. A woman who's grace, intellect and character is imminently respectable. I so want the opportunity to say to my 8 year old daughter, "thats Michelle Obama, the First Lady".

I want to believe. This blog issued its caucus prediction 5 days in advance and we said that Clinton would edge Obama out to win Iowa. That prediction was 40% analysis and 60% self defense against disappointment. Because as much as I was rooting for him, I couldn't quite bring myself to BELIEVE he could defeat the Clinton machine in Iowa.

Iowa is the end of the beginning. In 5 days comes New Hampshire, Clinton's next opportunity to blunt Obama's growing momentum. The compressed and lightning round nature of the primaries to come may very well favor Obama now. Having bloodied Clinton badly in Iowa, I have every expectation that the Clinton machine will unload everything they have against Obama now. But five days is not a lot of time to drive up Obama's negatives before New Hampshire votes. It remains to be seen what if any type of bump Obama receives in NH from his Iowa win. But if he manages another win there, his momentum going into SC will be massive. A win in NH will fire up black voters in SC who will respond to evidence of electability by Obama, which we now have tasted with this Iowa win. His challenge to Clinton is real, a clear and present danger to their dynastic dream of a convention coronation.

This battle is not over, not by a long shot. In fact, Iowa was the opening bell of this heavyweight fight. Obama scored a knockdown, but not a knockout. I and the rest of America, will be watching and hoping that Obama has the staying power, the resilience and the killer instinct necessary to survive and win the bloodsport of nomination politics and eventually to become the leader of the free world.

The audacity of hope indeed.

January 3, 2008

The Force is Strong In This One....

At 9:30 pm, ABC News and CNN are calling the Democratic Iowa caucus for Obama. As one of his senior aides put it to ABC's Stephanopolis, "this isn't a caucus, its a primary". Political Season is pleased to have our Democratic caucus prognostications proved wrong. With this victory, Obama shatters Clinton's aura of the inevitable nomination and derails the Clinton dynastic dream of an unchallenged convention coronation.

Huckabee Homers on Leno

Huckabee just finished on the Tonight Show with Jay Leno and I'm telling you the guy is personable as all get out. He cracked jokes that were funny, jammed on the guitar with the band, talked up the fair tax (which I like) and just generally did a great job of coming across as somebody you would want to have in leadership in the oval office. He absolutely did not hurt himself with that performance one bit. Personality doesn't equal political success, but if it did, the Huckster would be a national favorite. Did you catch his appearance on Leno? How do you think he did?

December 28, 2007

Political Season's Iowa Caucus Prediction


With five days to go to the Iowa Caucus, Political Season is going to stake our claim as political prognosticators par excellence and make our predictions now on how the Iowa Caucus results will shake out.

Democrats:

Our Prediction: Hillary Clinton will squeak out a narrow win in the Iowa Caucus.

We believe it will shake out Clinton, Obama, Edwards and then the rest of the field.

Our rationale: Based on polling data at Real Clear Politics Clinton is leading in the polls and if I'm reading their data right, the trending seems to be favoring her at least through 12/13/07. The results are within the margin of error currently, but if the trending is right, it may be breaking back Hillary's way. Furthermore, Obama is facing a serious challenge from Edwards, who appears to be making a surge and his numbers are drawing him closer to Obama. In our view, Edwards does not have a real shot at the nomination long term, both from an electability standpoint and a resource standpoint. A win or even a close third place run though will keep him in the game for a little longer, but ultimately his campaign is going to succumb to the liberal, left wing lack of depth and intellectual honesty in his campaign. We think Obama will manage to weather this late inning challenge and hold Edwards at bay to finish a near second to Clinton. However, in our view, the Clinton campaign should manage to edge Obama out with a win in excess of the margin of error. Political Season says Clinton wins by a 5-7% margin of victory.

If you're Hillary, you're really rooting for Edwards like Carcetti in Season 4 of The Wire is rooting for Gray, because votes for Edwards come more at Obama's expense than they do hers in our view. Thats what appears to be happening right now. So there is a real danger for Obama that Edward's could pull out a 2nd place finish over Obama. That would keep Edwards around a little longer and I think do some damage to Obama's campaign momentum. A close 2nd place finish to Clinton does not hurt Obama a whole lot, but a third place finish behind Edwards would eat into his momentum. Obama in this last week must fight the Clinton enemy to his front and direct fire to his rear on Edwards as well.

Republicans:

Our Prediction: Mike Huckabee will win commandingly, with Romney taking 2nd place. We like Thompson to take 3rd place, since he is the next most appealing candidate for evangelicals after the Huckster.

Real Clear polling data has Huckabee holding a firm lead and Romney trailing. Huckabee appears to have tapped right into the evangelical vein in Iowa and that has helped propel him forward over Romney, whose Mormon background, flip floppy rep and quite probably his misstatements and/or outright lies about things like his father marching with King have not served him well.

While we are going to call the third spot for Thompson, based on the polling data, we take official blog notice of the Iowa Independents' power rankings, which have been released periodically throughout the campaign. The Independent has consistently had Edwards in first place in recent weeks, but has now switched to Obama as the front runner. Even more interesting to us, they are suggesting a Ron Paul third place showing, an interesting thought for a candidate that one can make a case has a real racial bias issue. The Independent says Paul's caucus prep and on the ground team is better than people are giving him credit for. We think that idea has legs and we'll be watching with interest. The Independents' call is not based on polls, but on their observations and gut reaction to events on the ground.

In any event, its the Season's view that the Iowa results will not be indicative of the long term outcome of the nomination fight on the GOP side. Huckabee has been the beneficiary of evangelical blessings that will not survive into New Hampshire and beyond. Its been a fun flirtation, but his Dumond rape case history alone we think is enough to sink him. Thompson is liable to hang around a bit longer, but if his campaign does not pick up some energy somewhere, he will fade soon enough. We expect it to come down to a national slugfest of Guiliani, Romney and McCain.

We don't believe the electorate in Iowa has quite yet cemented their views on the Democratic side. This final week will be a crucial test of the organizations of these political foes. So thats our prediction and we're sticking to it. Whats your prediction? Leave it in the comments and test your prognosticator skills against the Political Season team.

December 11, 2007

Hillary Responds to the Attack of the Double O

Hillary's response to this weekends three state Double O onslaught was to deploy Maya Angelou via radio in South Carolina, to counter the Obama/Oprah offensive. But I don't think that is hardly going to cut it. Obama made major inroads into South Carolina this weekend. 30,000 people attended the SC rally with Oprah. The Obama campaign was very shrewd and demonstrated a clear understanding of their business. Oprah's job was to fill the seats and make the pitch. Obama and his team's job was to close the sale and do the conversions. They obtained the voter information for everyone who attended and they were making 65,000 phones calls today to follow up with each every one. Without a doubt, he in one weekend struck deep and hard into the SC electorate, drawing a crowd of mostly women, many of them African American, a segment he was losing ground with. I suspect he made up some of that ground and that his rallies this weekend have given him an even firmer foothold on SC territory.

Oprah was extremely effective in directly attacking the idea that Hillary is more experienced and seasoned than Obama. She did a great job of positioning Obama as the candidate of change vs. Hillary. Hillary's response with radio ads from Maya to my mind betrays her weak point: she is the establishment candidate. For an electorate interested in change, she is not the candidate. Many of her endorsements reflect her establishment status (Andrew Young, Maya Anjelou, Quincy Jones etc.). The Obama campaign is getting better at painting her in this way. So this weekend is a major victory in the election war.

Hillary's response with the Maya Angelou ads can certainly be considered only part of her response. She has a highly organized campaign and organization wins elections. She's smart and she's ruthless and not without weapons of her own, such as Bill and plenty of money too.

Obama is picking up the big mo. He's challenging her in Iowa, competing in New Hampshire and may perhaps have generated momentum in SC. He's fighting an intense three state war for the early primary states and as the primaries get closer, the gloves are coming off. Lets get ready to ruuummmbbblleee!

December 9, 2007

Huckabee is finished in my book

The Wayne Dumond Rape Case - 2o second summary

Dumond was convicted of raping a 17-year-old girl in 1984 and was sentenced to life in prison. This was in Arkansas while Bill Clinton was governor. After Clinton was elected president, Dumond became a cause celebre conservative activists because the rape victim was Clinton’s second cousin once removed, and the charge was that Dumond was the innocent victim of a frameup by a vengeful Clinton. In 1996, after being elected, Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee announced that he thought Dumond should be set free. Subsequently, he met with the parole board and a few weeks after that Dumond was paroled.Two years later Dumond was released from prison, and within weeks he sexually assaulted and murdered a 39-year-old woman in Kansas City. Huckabee was horrified, but said there was simply no way he could have known Dumond was dangerous.

A reprinted, detailed account in the Arkansas Times of Gov. Mike Huckabee's role in freeing rapist Wayne Dumond to rape and murder again pretty much knocks him out of contention for my vote. A review of the circumstances around the case makes it pretty clear that far from being a situation where a judgment call honestly made went bad, the Dumond case is one where Huckabee ignored and willfully overlooked facts readily available to him. He didn't just make a bad call. He was presented with ample information that at a minimum should have made him decide not to intervene with the state parole board. So his judgment is extremely suspect based on his active involvement in influencing the case.

Also disturbing is the political context of the case, because Ashley Stevens, Dumond's rape victim, was a distant cousin of Bill Clinton, governor of Arkansas at the time of the rape. Conservative activists in Arkansas, politically opposed to Clinton, derided the rape as having never happened and proclaimed Dumond to be an innocent man railroaded unfairly by then governor Bill Clinton. These activists championed Dumond's cause for years. Huckabee appears to have been strongly influenced by these activists and to have been either unwilling or unable to independently evaluate the readily available facts of the case and reach a reasoned decision.

Huckabee claims he exerted no influence over the parole board, but he met with the parole board in closed executive session to express his view that Dumond should be freed. Parole board members also indicate that there was a lot of influence being exerted behind the scenes as well. In Dumond's previous parole board outings, he was denied parole 4-1. After Huckabee met with the parole board, they voted to free him, 4-1.

So you have two really disturbing things going on here that really rule him out for me. One, this guy makes a really bad call based on information and opinions he had ample reason to question in the case of a convicted rapist no less. He ignored that evidence and pushed for this guy to be released against the advice of plenty of credible people in part out of partisan influenced disregard for the facts in a rape case. Thats just unconscionable.

Two, he's lying about it now. He claims he didn't have anything to do with the parole board's decision, but he is contradicted by three of the seven board members. Members of his staff also contradict him and documents obtained by the Huffington Post. He claims that he received no letters from victims regarding Dumond's release, but later released letters from victims.

In short, he is trying to spin it now, but its clear that he ignored the facts for ideological reasons in the case of a convicted rapist, casting aside even the impassioned plea of a victim not to release this man. Thats a bridge too far in my book and as the facts become more widely known, I suspect others will feel the same. His Iowa momentum notwithstanding, Huckabee is finished.