With less than 24 hours to go, Political Season updates our Feb. 15th Texas & Ohio prediction as follows:
Texas & Ohio - Political Season predicts Obama loses the popular vote in both contests. He has closed the gap in Texas, but I don't think he gets all the way there, and Clinton is showing a 2 day upwards trend that should it hold through tomorrow nights voting, may permit her to edge Obama out . Best case scenario, he splits them with her. Again, the demographics seem favor her in Ohio and the hispanic vote may be breaking large for her in Texas, though it remains to be seen if the so-called "brown wave" of latino voters in Texas will materialize for Clinton. Count on these wins to reinvigorate her call for seating Michigan and Florida (and open warfare on this score from Obamacons). These wins, coupled with Rhode Island will give her 3 to 1 victories on this round of primaries, and keep her alive for the PA primary.
Furthermore, Political Season says this does not get better. Frontrunner status means that Obama is under more scrutiny from the press and the Obama campaign may increasingly be off message as the heat turns up. We predict that the comments to the Canadian government issue, the soon starting Rezko trial, incoming fire from Clinton, McCain and President Bush, and what appear to be buyer's remorse among the democratic electorate on Obama will all combine to blunt his campaign's forward motion, leaving him appearing as though he cannot quite close the deal and administer the kill shot to the Clinton campaign. In this environment, the close in tactical infighting skills of the Clinton's will be brought to bear on delegate schemes and to capitalize on the greater criticism that is now coming Obama's way. With the defeats in Texas and Ohio, even if he manages to split them with Clinton, we are witnessing the beginning of the end of the Obama run.