March 4, 2008

The Party Will Not Be Unified

The Democratic battle for the nomination between Obama and Clinton is guaranteed to go on tonight for many more weeks. As we predicted, Clinton won Ohio. TX remains to close to call, but as of this writing at 11:06 pm, Clinton has a slight lead and we think she will eke out a slim victory in the primary vote. We expect Obama to win the caucuses.

However, we believe that tonight's events herald the beginning of the end of the Obama campaign. We believe he will be done in by a relentless and dedicated program of personal attack, smear and questioning of his character. He may or may not aid that process with missteps of his own, but the clear negative attack strategy of the Clinton campaign is now in full effect.

In Texas, its clear that much of the electorate made decisions in the last three days and that coincides with the Clinton "phone call" ad and other negative tactics. The Clinton campaign has now begun to find the range on Obama. They are suggesting he is soft as a commander in chief. The Rezko story, which they have fed to the media for months is gaining traction. He mishandled the NAFTA story. The Clintons are not playing to win. They can't. The delegate math is not in their favor. They are playing to prevent Obama from winning by keeping the contest alive until the convention where they can deploy their formidable back alley knife fight tactical prowess to seat MI and Fl and swing the supers.

Their strategy will be to damage and diminish him in every way possible all the way to the convention. They will do that with a constant and withering negative attack. They will tear him down to lift themselves and make palatable their rule changing and superdelegate beguiling tactics. Now, Obama is formidable. He's proven that he is not to be underestimated. I don't know his plan to deflect this attack. But I do know their intent.

Here is the problem. If the Clintons are able to destroy Obama's campaign through the politics of personal destruction and secure the nomination via the use of super delegate votes to overcome Obama's pledged delegate lead, that will not be a unifying event. Without a doubt, African American voters will turn their backs on the democratic party. Some will vote with them, some will vote for McCain and most will stay home. The millions who number themselves Obama supporters may do the same.

Speaking for myself, I will have no interest in a nominee who is all about the past, all about top down politics, and who could not win based on who they are, but rather by destroying who Obama is. Obama represents an optimism and new direction in the minds of many. The Clintons will destroy that hope in the name of winning. What they are going to find out is that not many will thank them for it.

A side note: CBC members who support Clinton in districts that went for Obama should be turned out of office. Nearly all of them when asked is supporting Clinton out of ties of loyalty for past support or long standing friendship. At this particular moment in history, I believe those to be insufficient reasons to have failed to support Obama's run and a price should be paid.