Parting Thoughts on Palin

I actually buy the premise that Palin was among the best picks available to McCain given what he felt he needed to accomplish, namely consolidating the republican base behind him. Were I Palin, I think I would say to anyone, "hey, I did my job". She revved the base, raised lots of money and helped him close the chasmatic excitement gap.

But anybody who is being honest will admit that while Palin had appeal and telegenic, crowd pleasing charisma in spades, she lacked gravitas in equal amounts and the McCain campaign's poor handling of her only compounded the problem. By the time she had some level of sea legs about her, they had already allowed a media narrative to become established that she would not begin to shake until the end days of the campaign, by then far too late.

Further, what her bona fide political skill set is yet I think to really be proven out. Certainly Alaskans deemed her right for the times there and clearly she was a breath of fresh air over the old boys network that has been running Alaska since statehood. She balanced a budget during prosperous times when oil was trading above $100+ a barrel. Now her skills will really be put to the test as she has to manage the state on oil revenue way below her budget projections. How her term plays out in Alaska will clue us in on whether she is ready to run the nation.

For all the talk of her energy chops, we never heard word one of that on the campaign trail beyond the sloganizing. We never got one policy speech on energy to my knowledge. Considering that the McCain camp was billing her as an energy expert, I find it hard to believe they never bothered to deploy her for heavyweight duty on that topic unless the fact was that she could not credibly speak on it.

The McCain campaign clearly blew it in correctly deploying her charisma and base drawing powers against The One, but I think its also the case that she didn't demonstrate that she was very much deeper than the charisma either.

Exit comment: Its been said, fairly, that Palin was no more inexperienced or unready than Obama for the rigors of a national campaign or the responsibility of national service in the White House. Its a good comeback, but here's the thing; we had two years to watch Obama rise to power on a strategy and with a team he crafted and I have to tell you that I don't believe Sarah Palin is capable of doing what Obama has done. She has the potential to be the white, female Obama doppelganger on the right, but I don't think she has it in her. The cool thing about that supposition? We get to test it. She's got four years to build. By 2010, if she is going to be a player, we'll know.

No One Said A Word

Here is what is very troubling, very disturbing to me. The shouted racial slur heard on the tape when you listen to it is pretty clear. I don't know if Sarah Palin heard it. If she did and ignored it, that's pretty deplorable behavior on her part not to call that out. I'll assume she did not hear it. But given that I can hear it on the tape very well, that means that a multitude of people at that rally were able to hear it very well. I've seen and listened to many a rally where some heckler in the crowd shouts out to interrupt the candidates and they are shouted down with chants of USA, USA! But here, dead silence. No response from this crowd whatsoever, or at least no response that one can discern. Maybe the shouter was escorted out. But somehow I doubt it, given that there is not a single reaction or peep to this obvious racist name calling. That lack of reaction is deplorable and shameful in a situation that has zero ambiguity.

Update: 8:20 pm - Gadfly in Residence Phelps says I'm all wet, that this didn't happen. That either I don't hear what I think I hear or this is doctored stuff. Either way, I'm not invested in talking about a lie. Who's got the straight dope?

Sarah, What About Energy?

Sarah Palin today gave whats being billed as her first major policy speech today about what a McCain/Palin administration would do on the education front for special needs children. As the mother of a special needs child, Palin is becoming an expert on the challenges inherent in parenting a child with development challenges. Nothing wrong with that.

However, the McCain campaign has over and over touted Palin as an expert on energy. Deep into the campaign, 11 days to go, and the first policy speech is about special needs education? But on energy, where she is supposed to be an expert, all we get is sloganeering - "drill baby, drill"?

Palin is competent to govern Alaska, heck, she was clearly a step up over the very corrupt republican leadership there. However, the notion that she was prepared to be a heartbeat away from the presidency now has clearly been demonstrated to be false. On energy intelligence, the McCain-Palin campaign is running on empty.

Oh What A Relief

The Biden- Palin Debate is receding into the rearview mirror and the republican party and McCain campaigns are breathing a sigh of relief. Frankly, so am I. After the the many cringe worthy moments from the Couric interview that became the gift that keeps on giving, I was not looking forward to a 90 minute cringefest. It would have been too painful for me. The muscles that power the cringe reflex can only take so much punishment.

Palin did herself a solid and pulled her political future out of the crapper. Too bad her performance (in every sense of the word) is unlikely to do the same for McCain's campaign.

Definitely Funny

Free Sarah Palin - She has a point

Campbell Brown anchors CNN's "Campbell Brown: Election Center" at 8 p.m. ET Mondays-Fridays. She delivered this commentary during the "Cutting through the Bull" segment of Tuesday night's broadcast. Campbell Brown says she's had it with what she calls Sen. John McCain campaign's chauvinism toward Sarah Palin.

Campbell Brown says she's had it with what she calls Sen. John McCain campaign's chauvinism toward Sarah Palin.

NEW YORK (CNN) -- Frankly I have had it, and I know a lot of other women out there who are with me on this. I have had enough of the sexist treatment of Sarah Palin. It has to end.

She was in New York on Tuesday meeting with world leaders at the U.N. And what did the McCain campaign do?

They tried to ban reporters from covering those meetings. And they did ban reporters from asking Gov. Palin any questions.

I call upon the McCain campaign to stop treating Sarah Palin like she is a delicate flower who will wilt at any moment.

This woman is from Alaska for crying out loud. She is strong, she is tough, she is confident. And you claim she is ready to be one heartbeat away from the presidency. If that is the case, then end this chauvinistic treatment of her now. Allow her to show her stuff. Video Watch a debate on whether the GOP is hiding Palin »

Allow her to face down those pesky reporters just like Barack Obama did today, just like John McCain did today. Just like Joe Biden has done on numerous occasions. Let her have a real news conference with real questions.
"No bias, no bull"
More on whether the media are covering Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin fairly on "Campbell Brown: Election Center"
8 ET tonight on CNN
see full schedule »

By treating Sarah Palin differently from other candidates in this race, you are not showing her the respect she deserves.

Free Sarah Palin.

Free her from the chauvinistic chains you are binding her with.

Sexism in this campaign must come to an end. Sarah Palin has as much a right to be a real candidate in this race as the men do.

So let her act like one.

Palin is a Lightweight

McCain and other Republicans have defended Palin's qualifications, citing Alaska's proximity to Russia. Palin told ABC News, "They're our next-door neighbors and you can actually see Russia from land here in Alaska."

Hagel took issue with that. "I think they ought to be just honest about it and stop the nonsense about, 'I look out my window and I see Russia and so therefore I know something about Russia,'" he said. "That kind of thing is insulting to the American people."

I could not agree with Hagel more on this issue of Palin's qualifications. We republicans pride ourselves on being realistic and sober in our thinking. When it comes to Palin, some of that mental discipline is clearly in order.

Lets get real folks. Palin is articulate and intelligent and possesses some political skills. That being said, she is not ready for prime time. She is not ready to play at this level. Thats not just the conclusion of her critics, but clearly its the McCain campaigns belief as well. How else can you explain their insistence on changing the format of the upcoming vice presidential debate for example?

At the insistence of the McCain campaign, the Oct. 2 debate between the Republican nominee for vice president, Gov. Sarah Palin, and her Democratic rival, Senator Joseph R. Biden Jr., will have shorter question-and-answer segments than those for the presidential nominees, the advisers said. There will also be much less opportunity for free-wheeling, direct exchanges between the running mates.

McCain advisers said they had been concerned that a loose format could leave Ms. Palin, a relatively inexperienced debater, at a disadvantage and largely on the defensive.

This nominee is supposed to be able to step into the Oval Office at a moment's notice, but must be protected from a debate setup that would require her to speak for too long? Its absurd.

Consider that with less than 45 days to election day, Ms. Palin thus far has given 2 media interviews, with a third scheduled with Katie Couric shortly. Her second interview was with Sean Hannity, a total partisan and so that doesn't really count anyway. So two major media interviews. Why does the vice presidential nominee require this much stage management? There is a problem when the campaign can't let the number two operate without script. Its indicative of the fact that Palin is a lightweight.

Lastly, any semi-conscious republican who is the least bit thoughtful and believes that Palin is ready to be President of the United States if McCain drops dead the day after inauguration is simply stupid or telling a bold face lie. Its that simple. A comparison I find helpful is simply to hold Palin up against the current occupant of the office, Dick Cheney. Like him or not, there is not anybody thats going to say Cheney is not effective, or lacks gravitas, or is not totally capable of running the country, in fact there are plenty who think he's running it now. I, nor any thinking republican, can seriously advance the argument that Palin brings a skill set to the ticket remotely comparable to Cheney, arguably the most effective and powerful VP in history.

Palin is a lightweight. She was selected for purely political reasons and she was not throughly vetted. McCain gambled with her pick and I think its a losing gamble. She's a base intensifier, but I don't see that she can bring him moderates and independents in any great numbers. She can't really campaign without McCain either, both because she has become the draw on the trail and because she can't do a town hall meeting or any type of event that requires her to speak unscripted at length.

Intelligent republicans, if they are being honest, will say that Palin does not meet the essential VP test, which is readiness to be president if the President is unable to serve. Period.

McCain-Palin- No Straight Talk on Bridge to Nowhere

I just got finished listening to a POTUS 08 interview with the mayor of the borough of Ketchikan-Gateway in Alaska, Joe Williams.

This mayor said that Palin DID kill the bridge to nowhere project. However, McCain-Palin is not riding the straight talk express on this subject. According to this mayor, Palin supported the bridge to nowhere project. At that point in time, according to this mayor, the project was about a $238 million dollar deal and Alaskans have been trying to get earmark dollars for it for over 30 years. Finnally, their local congress people got the money committed by Congress. But apparently the cost of the bridge in the interim ballooned to over $400 million and Palin as governor decided that that was too much, so she killed it. BUT, she kept the money!

In fact, this mayor was angry because she killed the project which had major local support, and announced that decision to the rest of the country before she did to Alaskans. She announced the change at 5:30 am Alaskan standard time when Alaskans are in bed. This mayor's son lived in NY and called him to ask him why it was being killed, to which he replied it was not, and his son told him, oh yes it is because its being reported on CNN right now. Further, this mayor had no idea as to exactly how the money was going to be used since they were not spending it on the bridge.

McCain-Palin are stumping and telling people that 1. she didn't support the bridge to nowhere when she did, and 2. that she told Congress, no we don't want the money, you keep it, when actually, she got the money and she decided to keep it and use it for something else.

That is a direct contradiction to what they are saying on the stump. Point Blank. They should be called on it.

Palintology

Since the announcement of Palin as McCain's running mate, I've been looking for sources of Alaska based intel on her. I'm gratified to have discovered along with many others I'm sure, some Alaskan bloggers. Here's a little link love:

What is McCain Thinking? One Alaskan’s Perspective.

"Is this a joke?” That seemed to be the question du jour when my phone started ringing off the hook at 6:45am here in Alaska. I mean, we’re sort of excited that our humble state has gotten some kind of national ‘nod’….but seriously? Sarah Palin for Vice President?"....more

Other Alaska Blogs:

Celtic Diva

Alaska Real

The above are all so called progressive bloggers, I have not found anyone interesting on the right side of Alaska politics, but I'm sure I will with a bit more digging.


This was good for a "you have got to be kidding me" moment today:

"So until at which point in time we feel like the news media is going to treat her with some level of respect and deference, I think it would be foolhardy to put her out into that kind of environment."

She's ready to be a 72 year old heartbeat away from the presidency on day 1, but not to take questions from the news media almost 2 WEEKS after she was announced as the VP candidate to the American people? And why? Because they might not be nice to the pitbull with lipstick? It does not pass the smell test. The jury is perhaps still out, but this kind of stuff makes it look like McCain made a rash decision here. You're the VP choice, you need to be press and world ready from the get go. This is stage management pure and simple. Anybody who needs this much scripting, there's a problem. Hillary Clinton was not my pick, but you can say this about her. She has been savaged by the press, attacked from every angle in debates and took on all comers from the jump. The McCain campaign is doing everything they can to stage manage the Pitbull with lipstick to a very large degree. The VP candidate should not require that kind of babysitting.

Video ideation on Palin:



I thought this was a great satire. The sequestration of Palin thats going on now tends to cut against this having any resemblance to reality. But it was very amusing.

Some Alaskan local news coverage on Troopergate:




Is this really the group of people you want to tick off?



My wife happens to be, among many good things, a trained and highly skilled community organizer. My work in the development field has put me in this role at many points in my career. Palin's backhanded swipe at Obama on his community organizing background has been taken very personally by many in the organizing community. Gov. Palin, you may come to find on Nov. 4th, that it is NOT a smart idea to tick off thousands of people who organize people all day every day. Not smart at all.

Exit bit for the scandal mongers among us:



The brother delivers the tale brilliantly with a great deal of earnestness. I don't live in Alaska, so I have no way of judging if the little narrative details he throws in make any sense at all. An Alaskan might be able to judge from that alone if there was any possibility. I assume out the gate that he is lying because it would just be too much fun than is politically and morally acceptable to have if it were. The brother has a little rap career he is trying to promote, so he's using bottomfeeder smarts to use the Palin pregnancy for a few thousand extra eyeballs. I watched, and now so have you. Assuming he's lying, I hope he is prepared for the heat that will fall on him when the McCain campaign gets wind of it.

Palin's Failure for Everyday People

Alaine weighs in on Palin's speech and candidacy cross posted here:

I watched the speech last night. I argued with my Republican husband about the lack of substance in the McCain't Palin ticket. He promptly suggested I was not being strategic in thought, overly emotional and sited my response as evidence of why the "Democrats might not win because they don't understand the real issues at hand." I had openly avoided any blogging about this issue, swept into a focus on back to school and back to the routines that guide our family. However, after my true introduction to Pitbull Palin last night, my thoughts are incredibly clear. I have been Independent for the last decade in my voting, and last night I was clear that if I must pick a party affiliation - it will be to proclaim I am a Democrat.

No Solutions - Rhetoric
Palin offered no solutions about the issues that matter to me most. There was no mention of health care and a summary statement about "parents being able to choose" the education option for their child. The problem with that education theory, is that the only families that truly experience choice are those that are able to afford houses above $250,000 in value, so that they can buy a school district that offers a competitive education. Although I support Charter School options and applaud parents seeking immediate remedies to their local schools, I see what those options are everyday. I also know that most schools in the infancy of their development (Charter Schools included) are not able to provided the systems and tools that an above average Suburban school district provides.

My prescriptions with full health care for my children have been about $150 this month, including office co-pays. Palin and McCain don't have to address these issues, it doesn't even matter to them. The problem, however, is that more American people face my reality than Palin's Mr. Mom husband, and McCain's decision to marry up, wealthy and clueless.

A Moral Mess
We can talk about policy prescriptions and detailed plans, but at its core the Republican Party has been offering a moral solution to life for as long as I can remember. I myself use the term conservative to clarify that regardless of my political affiliation I have morals and standards that are clear for my family and our lives. The Right has taken faith and religion and stood on top of hills and mountains to proclaim the lack of moral compass in anyone who disagree with them. And what do we get from their example:

Giuliani was responsible for the build up last night. Someone who moved his mistress into the home with his wife, openly cheated, and does not have the respect and support of his children. The Giuliani sons are Obama supporters.

McCain returned from his POW experience which he openly pimps in what has become a disgraceful manner - to cheat on his wife, divorce her after she suffered terribly from a life altering accident, and then married the wealthy bimbo he cheated with.

Palin has the ability to reach out openly to parents of disabled children, white women, those who aspire to a "less cosmopolitan world", while Barack has to dance around his culture, all racial issues and any reference to what he might be an advocate for if he gets the nod. Her mother in law said she didn't know what Palin brings to the ticket. I would love to clarify what she brings - she's white. she's female. she's void of any documented position on race and equity issues. she's gender politics at its finest.

It remains more acceptable to be a white woman soliciting for female empathy, and asking women to vote with their ovaries, while gently flirting with the no family is perfect theme - than to be firmly rooted in family values and Black. If Barack had a teenage daughter that was pregnant, left a newborn child to return to work in 72 hours, and prioritized a speech over a pending birth - we'd be citing the problems with Black male leadership in the home. I am resisting the desire to fully editorialize what I feel about having Palin represent women as a whole - but what I'm clear about is the changing standards. It isn't about character if we can be beat on character, it isn't about experience if we can be beat back about experience, it isn't about issues if we can make it about personality.

We are on the eve of electing war mongers and our media dialog is about how inspiring Palin is. Well, she's clean, articulate and the first viable female candidate - but that doesn't mean we want her at all. Jesse Jackson didn't motivate my support because I didn't believe he was the best candidate. Lets be clear, I'd love to make history voting for a woman. I will grieve the day she was born if that woman is painted in Palin. Offer me someone who has worked hard, paid their dues, has something this Soccer Mom can relate to - and I'd be thinking long and hard. Hell, I don't want more taxes. But the thought that anyone believes Palin, the VICE Presidential candidate is that person- it is simply a false hope. The men who stayed up all night writing her speech should be proud. I'm more convinced of her drama and her acting ability than I am of her political prowess, and for a woman of color she offers nothing. I don't want my 8 year old daughter looking to her, Giuliani or McCain't for anything. ever.

No Perspective on Community Based Issues
The dig at being a community organizer shouldn't just be about Barack. The truth is, Barack Obama was a community organizer, but there are millions of us who are an active part of the community development industry. As professionals who work through community based organizations to affect change, we should be collectively asking the question - then what does Palin think about the real everyday work that we do?

You see, if Barack's experience is fluff to her and she doesn't believe that real decisions were being made - her implication is that government leadership is real work, and community based work is not. For everyone who has mobilized a group of people for collective action, worked to leverage investment for community and central city development, shifted the paradigm about affordable housing to an action about socio-economic integration for diverse communities - Palin thinks you don't make real decisions.

In the world of Palin, telling government officials and departments how to spend the budget and "drill, baby drill" is more important than change that is created from the ground up. In her world grassroots is as foreign as diversity, race and accountability. McCain doesn't have a lock on patriotism because he survived War - half of the men in my family served as well. The picture painted at the Republican convention doesn't capture the sacrifice and service of the men in my family - men who universally believe that the war was a MISTAKE. They - McCain/Palin believe leadership comes from the top down, not from the bottom up. And what will you tell your children when they have to interview more times for a minimum wage job, than she did for the 2nd highest position in the land - with a 72 year old with heart and anger management issues. Please. Let me assure you the same standards will not apply.

While she spent her 15 minutes of fame showing how clearly she can be a pit bull, what she didn't tell you is what she can offer for you. Did you get a sense of what is happening with Social Security, Healthcare and Education? Did you get a clear understanding of who she will put on the Supreme Court - or wasn't that pretty obvious ladies. Palin made HER CHOICE based on her personal circumstances, but do you trust her to make decisions for you.
She's advocating for her 17 year old to get married and we believe this to be a responsible choice for the sake of doing what's right. Angelina and Brad could introduce them to the concept of ADOPTION if her Right Wing Fanatics can't help her there.

Did you get misty eyed in thinking that we'd be at war for the next 100 years, with an economy as strong as McCain thinks it is today. I mean really, you all have $5 million to work with, right? We're watching the stage shift before our eyes and the dialog still remains hinged on identity politics.

I don't identify with Palin. With the escalating foreclosure rates that are crippling communities at their core - Palin had no words regarding housing. She didn't offer any solutions with her criticism of what celebrity brings. If 80,000 people in a stadium is celebrity - being lifted from obscurity for the Vice President selection because you have ovaries should be too.

Reality Check
Barack and Michelle offer for my children a substantive example of the beliefs we have tried to instill in them. At very young ages they have been introduced to racism in ways that grieve my heart and spirit. When they see people who are touchable in their eyes, people who have had to work hard for everything they have every gotten, people who played by the rules and leveraged education for success, people who got married - had children - and then had the audacity to stay together, people who have dared to dream bigger than anyone thought they should, people who gave back to their community and used the channels available to them to pay off student loans and credit cards that subsidized making ends meet, they see a future.

When they see McCain and Palin they see more of the nothing they see every day here. People who don't view race as an issue. People who don't view class as an issue. People who don't see neighborhood based work as real work. People who believe the proximity to Russia gives credit for foreign affairs experience. (Condi would you please help them with that fallacy.) People who support war at any cost and educational opportunity for a few, not the masses. People who throw the first stone, as they flip flop on immigration, tax cuts, and more. People who don't prioritize health care, and will never make a decision where to live on how much money they earn. People who get a pass for moral mayhem, but want to tell the world how to live their lives.

I was an Independent. In 2008, I cannot afford to be silent.
I am a Democrat by issues - because they live where I live. I am conservative and I am troubled by some of the views that Barack holds. Yet, I contrast that with my reality. I am concerned about each and every view held by McCain and Palin, grieved that they might one day represent me, horrified by the example they set for my children, and motivated to ensure that their closeted view of the world doesn't become my reality.

Palin may be a PitBull, by her own admission. My mother taught me that a female dog was nothing to aspire to. Palin is a failure for everyday people. She is not a case of the American Dream. Her reality only works if you offer to the Republican party more of the same. I will never be white. I will never inherit my wealth. I will never be the "in crowd" because of my ovaries, my race and my religion. I am not the voter she was trying to reach last night - and I am proud that I will never be that.

And for my Republican husband, my dear...I'm strategic enough.

A Few Palin Points on Family Values

The republicans have decided that identity politics is a game they can play too. Its abundantly clear that any criticism of Palin's record or experience will almost immediately be branded as a sexist attack. Its interesting, since the Right's rap on Obama is that any criticism of him is regarded as racism, but this is now their tactic. I'm listening to cable now and thats the way many critiques are being handled. So this candidate is going to use the charge of sexism as a shield to push her narrative out and beat back competing viewpoints.

Another interesting point here is this idea that Palin's family matters is off limits. Let me be clear, I certainly support the decision of the family not to abort the child. I don't disagree with that, I'm pro-life. However, while it may be bad form for the pundits and press to opine on it, when you selectively highlight your children and parade the young man who knocked up your underage daughter on nationwide television, us voters out here are perfectly entitled to an opinion on how the Palin household is being run and the message the Republicans are sending with her pick.

From around the web, some relevant opinion points:

Booker Rising
This is a strange time to be a Republican. Am I just supposed to be cool with all this? Should I now recalibrate my family values to adjust for this unfortunate mess? Is teen pregnancy now just a sign of 'An American Family?' Is the desire to secede from the United States now a sign of patriotism? What the hell is going on here? First of all, I don’t want to hear from anyone that 'Sarah Palin’s family should be off limits'. This isn’t about Bristol Palin or Trig Palin or Earwax Palin or Mack Truck or whatever the hell the other ones are called. This is about the judgment, the beliefs and the managerial style of the woman who could be President of the United States. I see no reason to be polite. I think Palin’s decision to drag her daughter’s teen pregnancy into the international spotlight is not just ill-considered, it is morally bankrupt." Black Men For McCain

Blue Gal


...an eighteen year old unwed pregnant girl was paraded in front of the entire world in order to buttress her mother's image as a premier spokesperson for the party of family values. It is not misogyny to call that into question.

Mirrror On America
You don't get to ram, shove and cram, 'Family Values' down the throat of America, as if you're on a different moral plain. If you put yourself out as some sort of moral barometer, then you better make sure that you can live up to the front you place before the American people. And, let's make this finally clear. The leftward blogosphere didn't put Bristol Palin out front and center. Her mother did - to divert questions that had been raised - BY REPUBLICAN BLOGGERS IN ALASKA - about her last pregnancy. They came 'clean' because the National Enquirer was onto them.

Palin is the Republican Obama

Palin should have been the republican nominee. Not John McCain. She represents the future of the republican party a lot better than John McCain does. Had she, like Obama, been running for the past two years, and assuming that she is every bit as skilled in running a national campaign has Obama has proven himself to be, the country would likley have become comfortable with her experience and her positions. Based on what I've seen so far, I would vote for Palin for president.

Palin may still not be enough to sell the electorate on McCain, though I believe she will definitely help him nail down people who were unenthusiastic and might have just stayed home. The fact will remain that McCain is the top of the ticket and he is the one calling the shots. Not Palin. So at the end of the day its still a decision on McCain and on his promise that he is a different, better republican.

Stunning Hypocrisy

I'm listening to a GOP women press conference on XM POTUS with Carly Fiorina and other prominent republican women put on for the purpose of defending Sarah Palin. They are strenuously arguing that an examination of Palin should be conducted ON THE ISSUES. This after Rick Davis, a McCain spokesperson said;
"This election is not about issues," said Davis. "This election is about a composite view of what people take away from these candidates."

The McCain campaign has no intention of fighting the election on the issues. They are intent on casting Obama as socialist, child killer, muslim, tack on your own to the list. But with regard to Palin, we must discuss the issues. I don't condone what can certainly be regarded as sexism fueled attacks on Palin, but I have little stomach for the outrage of republicans over tactics they have been and continue to gleefully dish out for months.

Stunning hypocrisy.

Political Season's Vice Presidential Debate Prediction

A debate between United States vice presidential candidates Joe Biden and Sarah Palin is scheduled to take place on October 2, 2008, at Washington University in St. Louis, Missouri.<sup>1

Our Prediction:

Biden is going to get his teeth kicked in.</sup>

HALPERIN’S TAKE

Hat tip: Hot Air

HALPERIN’S TAKE: The Good and Bad Reasons Why Sarah Palin is Being So Very Scrutinized

The View on Palin from an Alaskan Anti-Real ID Activist and Democrat

McCain's Palin Gamble

Well, there has been a little time to adjust and absorb McCain's Palin pick and its a mixed bag for Team McCain from where I sit.

On the up side:

The majority of the conservative base loves the pick. Her outsider cred, pro-life stance, family woman profile coupled with the rugged Alaskan, gun wielding persona is a hit with the christian right. She's generated money and more enthusiasm in a matter of days than has been ginned up through the majority of McCain's campaign.

With this pick, McCain makes an identity politics play that has left the Left somewhat confounded. They are fearful that Palin will serve as a rallying point, allow McCain to solidify himself as Maverick, reformer and possessor of all things American.

On the down side:

While the conservative base seems to love her, that enthusiasm does not appear to be catching on with other portions of the electorate, and particularly not so with regard to the so-called PUMA contingent, disaffected Democratic women voters. Voters also appear to see McCain's pick as a hail Mary pass, not uniformly as a pick that is an extension of his character and Maverick brand.

Palin's vetting process was not as thorough or in depth as it could have been and now we are getting a dribble drabble of all things Palin in terms of her positions and past actions. So we're hearing about membership in the AIP, past support of a windfall profits tax and how she voted for the bridge to nowhere before she voted against it.

My take a few days in:

McCain scores a win with Palin in ginning up conservative base enthusiam. Young people and politically engaged republicans are jumping on the bandwagon and its a shot in the arm for fundraising though it remains to be seen how long lived the effect is. Score one for McCain.

On balance, that may not offset the negatives that have accrued thus far. While republican CW is that the pick puts Team Obama in a box as far as criticizing her experience, I think thats not going to play in that direction as much as republicans would like and the reason why? Because republicans have to defend whether or not she has the experience to be president. They have to make the case that her experience is better than his and to do so they attempt to differentiate it qualitatively. The simple fact that they have to make a case for it takes some of their argument against Obama on experience away. In fact, some of the surrogates have implicitly conceded that she lacks the experience with their statements, like Charlie Black, top McCain adviser who said that Palin would learn foreign experience at the feet of a master.

The dribble drabble of Palin news thats coming out that seems to indicate that she was not vetted particularly well. Her daughter's pregnancy, the Troopergate affair, past support of windfall profits tax, membership in the AIP and who knows what else might emerge. There are a variety of unanswered questions out there.

We don't know yet if this political risk is going to ultimately pan out. While conservative sites are going berserk about sexist and biased attacks being slung Palin's way and raising the alarm about how the blogosphere and the media are going to smear her because of the daughter's pregnancy and the experience question, I think they are missing the larger issue. Railing against the MSM or liberal blog sites about how they react to the pregnancy is one thing, but the issue is how it plays in the electorate. When you aggressively push the christian right family values position, and then seem to come up short within your family, joe sixpack voter who shares the family values but has not come up short like that in their own family may feel like Palin is not authentic.

I think McCain has already committed an error. This first presidential decision is to pick a VP who is qualified to be president if necessary and qualification is both a resume issue and confidence issue on the part of the electorate. Bottom line, McCain did not select a running mate who is unquestionably qualified. If surrogates have to go on the Sunday talk shows to make the case that her experience is better or sufficient, it begs the question. It should not have been a question at all. This is the opening that Obama has been looking for, if they are prepared to exploit it. They should be swinging hard at McCain's judgment on picking Palin, because she was not fully vetted and her experience can be questioned.

Whether or not you think Obama's background qualifies him to be president, Obama has the benefit at this point that his experience and background have been passed on by millions of voters in all 50 states. Palin's has not. McCain is the only one who has passed on her credentials to be president. Obama should take care to shoot at the real target here, which is not Palin. Team Obama has to make this about the electorate evaluating McCain's judgment.

McCain Makes a Gamechanging VP Pick in Sarah Palin

McCain announced Sarah Palin, Governor of Alaska, as his VP selection today. Its a gamechanging pick. Its definitely an offensive move. The McCain camp seems to be gaining strategic and execution heft as November approaches, while the Obama campaign seems to be losing its bite. First impressions:

Palin's resume is a bit thin too, but even so, its a contrasting thinness to Obama and to Biden, consisting of executive experience, some of it admittedly lightweight as a springboard for national office, such as mayoral service of her hometown of 8,000.

Palin is a woman, and Biden may be hampered in getting off a hard hitting attack on her. He'll have to finesse the attack dog routine, which he seems ill suited for, while Palin does not appear to be the type who pulls punches. Biden will need to get after her, but her status as a woman may give her some cover by forcing him to frame his attacks carefully to avoid charges of sexism.

McCain has had to fight an uphill battle on the enthusiasm gap, but Palin as a dark horse candidate and a history making one for the republican party may be just what the doctor ordered to inject some energy into the campaign.

Palin does not stomp all over McCain's core message of maverick and commitment to reform, quite the contrary, she reinforces it. This in contrast to Obama, who's pick of Biden now looks even more decidedly like a defensive shoring up of his foreign policy chops, which actually is okay if it reassures voters. More damaging than that though by far, is Biden's status as a long time Washington insider. His presence on the ticket does not signal change. McCain is looking mavericky with this pick.

McCain's core messaging that Obama is not ready to lead is an established and solid line of attack that he is continuing to reinforce. Obama in contrast is off message. He has killed his change mantra, both by demphasizing it in the message and with the Biden pick, and his attack messages on McCain are not sharp enough, as he leavens them by constantly referencing McCain's military service before he levels an attack.

Until now, Obama's campaign was the sexiest. It had more history making, more novelty, more newness. No longer. McCain has now given his campaign a woman who appears to be capable of playing the role of attack dog. He now has a very good countervailing set of optics to Obama's team. His team has now become equally as interesting to watch. The McCain/Palin ticket is attractive. Obama is no longer the most interesting visual in the campaign. McCain now has a competing visual.

I suspect the Obama campaign has been doing oppo research mostly on McCain's other choices and I suspect the Palin pick will have caught them nearly flatfooted, though not entirely. Their political counter messaging is going to be critical once the convention is over. They have already signaled their line of attack with the campaigns first response, calling out Palin's thin resume, to which the republicans will respond that its certainly no thinner than Obama's and make the case that its better and you can spin it that way.

Palin has an abuse of power investigation ongoing in Alaska regarding her involvement in the firing of the public safety director for resisting firing her sister's ex-husband from his state trooper job. Frankly, given that several members of her staff including her chief of staff had contacts with the public saftey department specifically regarding the trooper, I find it hard to believe all of those contacts occured without her knowledge or involvement. But you have to figure the McCain campaign spent some time vetting that issue and must have concluded that there was nothing there that could hurt them, so maybe there is a lot of smoke and no fire. We'll see.

Alaine's reaction is that this is a play to get women voters and certainly the disaffected Clintonistas and she calls it as a bonehead play. She thinks Palin is too light on experience and fundamentally, she's no Hillary Clinton in the minds of women voters and therefore this is a cynical ploy by the republicans that assumes women are stupid and most will be offended and turned off. It remains to be seen how she plays, particularly given that she is strongly pro-life, clearly representing an effort by McCain to consolidate the values voters behind him who view personnel as policy. He will clearly bring them home with this pick.

I don't think Obama/Biden as a team is good optical counter to this team. Given the opticals and messaging attack that McCain is now fielding, I think Obama/Biden have a challenge to try to effectively hit these political targets. The good news there is that they actually have in their arsenal two smart weapons that could be deployed to devastating effectiveness. The bad news? Those two smart weapons are Hillary and Bill Clinton.

Now comes the true test of democratic party unity. A combined political frontal assault by Obama, Biden, Bill and Hillary could clobber the McCain ticket. Thats more incoming fire than they can withstand I think. But I see nothing to indicate that Bill and Hillary will unload on the McCain ticket. Many have said Gore lost in part because he refused to deploy Bill Clinton. Obama may have a very similar problem here, but it may not be that he won't deploy Bill and Hillary, its that he can't, because they are not available or if they are, only at a very steep price.

This ticket is attractive. As a republican, I imagine we could do worse. I don't think the republican leadership of the last eight years deserves another four. McCain is trying to convince me that he is going to be different than the rest of his party. Palin reinforces that message. I remain in need of convincing. I'm mindful that when George Bush took office, George Will said it would be government by grownups. Thats not the way it played out. Maybe McCain will be different enough, but I'm not convinced yet to take a chance that I'm not going to get more of the same crap. At the same time, McCain is successfully sowing doubt and uncertainty as to how much real change I can expect Obama to deliver. Advantage McCain.

Palin is a game changer pick. McCain is playing for keeps. Obama must raise his game again. Can he do it? Did McCain actually make a bad call that won't play with women voters like he thinks? Who now holds the better hand?