Political Season's New Hampshire Primary Prediction

All right. After some deliberation and thought, here are Political Seasons' prediction for the New Hampshire primary.

Democrats:

Political Season has decided to drink the Obama kool-aid for the NH primary. Based on the poll data at Realclearpolitics.org, and Obama's gaffe free debate performance last night, we predict he will win the NH primary and that he will do so running away. Political Season projects Obama to be the winner with a margin of victory as big or bigger than Iowa. We predict Hillary will take second place and Edwards will come in third with a vote performance weaker than in Iowa.

Republicans:

Political Season is predicting that John McCain will be the winner of the New Hampshire primary and may win it walking away in terms of the margin of victory. Romney appears to be fading and trending downwards in the polls. Although post debate focus groups in New Hampshire seemed to respond well to his performance, we do not think it will be enough to turn the tide for him in the time remaining against McCain. Huckabee will make a third place showing. While he appears to be achieving some upward movement, we believe his identification as an evangelical in the minds of NH voters will cap the extent of upward movement and that he will not benefit from an Iowa bump anywhere near what his democratic counterpart, Obama, has experienced from his Iowa win.

Huckabee Homers on Leno

Huckabee just finished on the Tonight Show with Jay Leno and I'm telling you the guy is personable as all get out. He cracked jokes that were funny, jammed on the guitar with the band, talked up the fair tax (which I like) and just generally did a great job of coming across as somebody you would want to have in leadership in the oval office. He absolutely did not hurt himself with that performance one bit. Personality doesn't equal political success, but if it did, the Huckster would be a national favorite. Did you catch his appearance on Leno? How do you think he did?

Huckabee is finished in my book

The Wayne Dumond Rape Case - 2o second summary

Dumond was convicted of raping a 17-year-old girl in 1984 and was sentenced to life in prison. This was in Arkansas while Bill Clinton was governor. After Clinton was elected president, Dumond became a cause celebre conservative activists because the rape victim was Clinton’s second cousin once removed, and the charge was that Dumond was the innocent victim of a frameup by a vengeful Clinton. In 1996, after being elected, Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee announced that he thought Dumond should be set free. Subsequently, he met with the parole board and a few weeks after that Dumond was paroled.Two years later Dumond was released from prison, and within weeks he sexually assaulted and murdered a 39-year-old woman in Kansas City. Huckabee was horrified, but said there was simply no way he could have known Dumond was dangerous.

A reprinted, detailed account in the Arkansas Times of Gov. Mike Huckabee's role in freeing rapist Wayne Dumond to rape and murder again pretty much knocks him out of contention for my vote. A review of the circumstances around the case makes it pretty clear that far from being a situation where a judgment call honestly made went bad, the Dumond case is one where Huckabee ignored and willfully overlooked facts readily available to him. He didn't just make a bad call. He was presented with ample information that at a minimum should have made him decide not to intervene with the state parole board. So his judgment is extremely suspect based on his active involvement in influencing the case.

Also disturbing is the political context of the case, because Ashley Stevens, Dumond's rape victim, was a distant cousin of Bill Clinton, governor of Arkansas at the time of the rape. Conservative activists in Arkansas, politically opposed to Clinton, derided the rape as having never happened and proclaimed Dumond to be an innocent man railroaded unfairly by then governor Bill Clinton. These activists championed Dumond's cause for years. Huckabee appears to have been strongly influenced by these activists and to have been either unwilling or unable to independently evaluate the readily available facts of the case and reach a reasoned decision.

Huckabee claims he exerted no influence over the parole board, but he met with the parole board in closed executive session to express his view that Dumond should be freed. Parole board members also indicate that there was a lot of influence being exerted behind the scenes as well. In Dumond's previous parole board outings, he was denied parole 4-1. After Huckabee met with the parole board, they voted to free him, 4-1.

So you have two really disturbing things going on here that really rule him out for me. One, this guy makes a really bad call based on information and opinions he had ample reason to question in the case of a convicted rapist no less. He ignored that evidence and pushed for this guy to be released against the advice of plenty of credible people in part out of partisan influenced disregard for the facts in a rape case. Thats just unconscionable.

Two, he's lying about it now. He claims he didn't have anything to do with the parole board's decision, but he is contradicted by three of the seven board members. Members of his staff also contradict him and documents obtained by the Huffington Post. He claims that he received no letters from victims regarding Dumond's release, but later released letters from victims.

In short, he is trying to spin it now, but its clear that he ignored the facts for ideological reasons in the case of a convicted rapist, casting aside even the impassioned plea of a victim not to release this man. Thats a bridge too far in my book and as the facts become more widely known, I suspect others will feel the same. His Iowa momentum notwithstanding, Huckabee is finished.

Dark Horse Rising

I don't have an extensive knowledge of Mike Huckabee's positions or policy positions, though I'm boning up. I kinda of like the guy based on three things: 1. He showed up for Tavis's debate to put in work for the party, took his fellow republicans to task for not attending and gave some good answers, acquitted himself well. 2. He's got strong social conservative views and positions and I like that and 3. He is a fair tax advocate. While there are some who claim the fair tax is not a workable option, the present tax system is a nightmare that never ends and the fair tax can't possibly be worse.

He's been rising in the polls in Iowa, like his democratic dark horse twin Obama. Could an Obama, Huckabee face off for the Oval Office be in our future? I like the guy. Like Obama, he comes off more often than not as earnest and sincere. I think his Iraq position as stated on his website is on the weak side, but I don't expect anyone to be brilliant on Iraq given how screwed up it has gotten. But I like his conservative bent and I like his stand on taxes. He's my replacement after I threw Guiliani under the bus because he didn't show for Tavis's debate. Check him out.